Nilacharal

Agreed Part of the Draft

What most of the reports did not highlight was the agreed part of the draft agreement, which could turn out to be the steeping stones in the days to come. There wrere few progresses made although expected end did not come through. Both the sides agreed in principle that the settlement of Kashmir issue would pave the way for normalization of relations between India and Pakistan. They also agreed to hold annual summit and biannual meetings of foreign ministers to tackle the three issues - Peace, Security and Confidence Building Measures (CBM), Jammu & Kashmir, and Narcotics and terrorism. The unfortunate side of it is that Musharraf undermined these developments (issues on which an agreement was reached) by mentioning in his Press Conference in Islamabad on 20th July that "CBM and Siachen are not main issues" and "we are killing each other because Kashmir is the core issue". Also, it would serve no purpose if Musharraf wants to undermine the Simla Agreement of 1972 and Lahore Declaration of 1999. Also, he should not insist on "starting from scratch" ignoring the positive moves made in Agra. Otherwise, every summit would be a "new start" and they would never take us forward.

Issues on Line of Control (LoC)

In Simla (1972), Z A Bhutto gave private assurances to the then Prime Minister of India Indira Gandhi of making the Line of Control (LoC) the international border. If we had got his assurances incorporated in the Simla agreement and had frozen the LoC as the international border this issue could have been contained and resolved long back. At the least, the Siachen agreement should be revived and used as a template to reduce forces all along the LoC. A cease-fire and demilitarization in Siachen glacier, and setting up some crossing points on the LoC should be included in the Confidence Building Measures (CBMS). A spell of peace along the LoC would automatically reduce violence in the Valley.

Pakistan wants India to pull back from the Saltoro ridge overlooking the Siachen glacier. There can be joint monitoring and patrolling of the Saltoro ridge. The Saltoro ridge is a wedge between the northern areas of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the Chinese-occupied Aksai Chin. Also, Pakistan ceded Indira Col near the Shaksgam Valley to China. Indian troops are deployed on this belt as it gives strategic advantage to India. India resists the disengagement on this belt in Siachen for want of complete trust between Delhi and Islamabad.

Pakistan insists that LoC be extended from NJ 9842 to the Karakoram Pass. This would give the entire Siachen area and Daulat Beg Oldi to Pakistan. It would also provide a second Sino-Pak link-up. This would make the relatively peaceful Leh extremely vulnerable from the north and make India's position in the Shyok Valley untenable.

In order to sort out all these issues, as a first step, cease-fire on the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) should be announced. It was even suggested that the AGPL could be mapped with grid references up to six digits to avoid confusion. After both armies withdraw from the glacier we can negotiate on all these issues.

Further Political Steps

Cong-I, which was optimistic and gave full support to PM before the Summit backed out after the Summit by saying that the government was not prepared in the first place. People would like to know what was the contribution from Cong-I, nation's main opposition party, in the all-party meeting convened by the Prime Minister before the Summit? We should move ahead and put all our brains together to find a way out for the causes of impasse in the bilateral discussion. Also, Prime Minister convened an another all-party meeting on 19th July 2001 to share the details of his Summit with the Pakistan President. Prime Minister conveyed an impression to the country through that meeting that the Pakistan delegation took ride on the Indian side. It is not clear whether the Congress-I pointed out to the Prime Minister the causes that led to this disappointment. Also, did it suggest the way forward?

The Prime Minister must make a visit to Pakistan and take the thread from the Agra summit rather than "starting from scratches". The visit should be preceded by the concerned efforts to establish working relations with Pakistan. The future negotiations should be held only after evolving a structure for dialogue and the agenda should be agreed to prior to the meet. It is also equally important that both the leaders take care of and contain the hard-liners on both sides and more importantly reduce the media hype so as to avoid disappointments. . ....more