There
were a lot of hue and cry raised about the recent US election.
The hype is all about a possibility of a very close tie and
Kerry beating Bush based on an intelligent, spirited, and issue-based
fight. The only significant result was the highest turn out
of
voters in the last four decades of US history. Interestingly
a higher turn out has given the Republican candidate the much-needed
margin in terms of popular votes over his Democratic opponent.
Normally, in a poverty-ridden democracy like India, a higher
turn out would indicate (through the result) an intense anger
of voters towards the incumbent
government. However, this was not only proved incorrect in US election
but also added support to the incumbent President. This clearly indicates that
in a developed country like USA, the citizenry is provoked to vote if
something threatens the status quo. Unlike the whole world, the voters in United
States thought about their security and domestic issues rather than what is
right and what is morally correct. If Bush had lied to UN before attacking Iraq,
so be it. For an average voter in America, it did not matter. If Bush can
ensure safety and security of the nation by any means, they would go with him.
Much less they are aware that this is not a long-term safeguard.
Like in any other democracy, the American voters gave importance to
their domestic issues such as health care, strategic reserve on oil, national
security, same sex marriage, abortion, and stem cell research. Not all
of them are emotive issues, as some of them are linked to their nation's economy and the livelihood of an average voter. However, the point to be noted from
the
list of issues that dominated the recently-concluded US election is
that there was more space for emotive and conservative issues than for the
economic and moral issues relating to governance. In this respect, even the US
voters are not far ahead or different from the voters in many of the developing
countries.
The electoral issues and the stand taken by the voters on those issues
reflect the thinking capacity of the powerful democracy in the world. In this
regard, even the US election and its voters are not exceptions. The tension and excitement that surrounded
the recently concluded US election is nothing but the media creation. In the final
analysis, if one looks at the figures carefully, Bush had managed 3% more popular votes
than what John Kerry got and it translates to 3.5 million popular votes. The total number
of votes polled in the recent US election was approx. 115 million. The
Republican party secured more seats in the Senate too. Even the margin between the top
two candidates was much higher than in 2000. The number of states that
sided with each of the two top candidates remained the same like what happened in
2000. These data suggest that if at all anything 2004 US election is
comfortably won by Bush than in 2000. In 2000, Bush polled less popular votes than what
his Democratic opponent Al Gore was polled. Definitely Osama bin Laden was
magnanimous enough to successfully campaign for Bush through his
surrealistic election-eve foray. It is quite possible in a polarized electoral
system like US Presidential election, there will be one or two key states which
would
emerge as swing states. It is not by accident but it is bound to
happen.
If one
wants to take an analogy to Indian election, take the case of Kerala
State election wherein the two major parties (Congress and the Left Party)
secure more than 95% of polled votes. Whoever forms the government they would
be doing so only with a slight margin over the loser. It is not at all
surprising in US Presidential election. The pathetic situation is that when literally
every single vote can swing the result either way, there were thousands of
invalid votes polled in US election. If those votes were deliberately polled
invalid, it is their way of sending message to their candidates. If they were
inadvertently polled invalid, something should be done to avert this in
future as they can alter the result. The impact of the US election outcome for India would be that we have
to tactfully withstand the pressures from USA as when the pressure is
brought upon us in the name of curbing terrorism. We should not be seen siding on
the wrong side on any international issue. For Indian IT industry, as is widely
speculated, there would not be any threat for sometime to come as Bush
does not believe in restricting the jobs outsourced from India. Out policy
towards America should be to build a healthy respectful 'peer relationship'
wherein we do not project ourselves as 'anti-USA' and at the same time do not go
over board to show our amicability and end up in subordinating to USA. We
hope that the Indian government led by Dr Manmohan Singh is capable of walking on
this tight-rope and perform this balanced-act to the benefit of India.
The only take out of this election result is that the Americans reacted
to 9/11 through their ballot by endorsing the actions Bush took in the last 3
years. Have the Americans, without a loud thinking, walked into Osama bin
Laden's trap whereby he threatens to drag America into fighting war with terrorism
and push them to bankruptcy? Or have they emboldened Bush's iron-hands towards
containing international terrorism? The result for this million dollar
question lies in the future and it would not only decide the fate of
USA but also of the entire world. Unfortunately Americans declined
the international concerns from their domestic emotive issues when they cast their
ballots to elect their President. However, the fact is that the rest of the
world's destiny is linked to the way America behaves. The rest of the world
can only hope and pray that Bush does not interpret this victory as a visa to
enter into any sovereign territories in the name of disciplining the
world. This success should not mislead Bush into disrespecting the United Nations and the
collective wisdom of the world. If he thinks himself (and his country)
as a big-brother to the world countries, he must realize that the
big-brother owns more responsibility than the younger kin's.